PREVENTIVE IDENTIFICATION OF AREAS OF SOCIAL TENSION

  • Oleg A. Shangutov Saint-Petersburg Military Order of Zhukov Institute of the National Guard Troops of the Russian Federation
  • Anton O. Shangutov Military Educational Institution of Logistics named after General of the Army A.V. Khrulyov of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation
Keywords: social tension, mass riots, Gini coefficient, protest activity, Granovetter’s model, threshold behavior

Abstract

The relevance of the study is due to the aggravation of the military-political and socio-economic conditions in the country and the world, which required the development of new ways to increase the efficiency of the functioning of state authorities in solving problems of ensuring state and public security.

The goal is to develop a method for the preventive identification of areas of social tension based on threshold models of collective behavior.

As a result of the study, an appropriate method has been developed that makes it possible to predict the dynamics of social phenomena based on taking into account such objective parameters as: inequality of income of the population, the level of citizens’ trust in persons and institutions representing the interests of the state, threshold behavior of the population. For the practical implementation of this method, a computer program has been developed.

Conclusions. The presented method of preventive identification of areas of social tension has a wide range of applications and significant potential for further modernization.

 

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Author Biographies

Oleg A. Shangutov, Saint-Petersburg Military Order of Zhukov Institute of the National Guard Troops of the Russian Federation

cadet

 

Anton O. Shangutov, Military Educational Institution of Logistics named after General of the Army A.V. Khrulyov of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation

Candidate of Sciences in Pedagogy, Associate Professor, Doctoral Candidate

 

References

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Massovye besporyadki [Mass riots]. Wikipedia. https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mass_Riots

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Reyting protestnoy aktivnosti regionov Rossii [Rating of protest activity of Russian regions]. IA REGNUM. https://regnum.ru/news/polit/2568900.html

Unified Interdepartmental Statistical Information System. https://fedstat.ru/indicator/31165

All-Russian Center for the Study of Public Opinion. https://wciom.ru/news/ratings/

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Approval of the authorities. ANO Levada-Center. https://www.levada.ru/indikatory/odobrenie-organov-vlasti/

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Shangutov A.O. Regional’nye aspekty upravleniya, ekonomiki i prava Severo-Zapadnogo federal’nogo okruga Rossii [Regional aspects of management, economics and law of the North-West Federal District of Russia], 2020, no. 4 (51), pp. 177-184.

Shangutov A.O. The program for the preventive identification of areas of social tension. Certificate for the computer program RU 2020616720, 06/22/2020.

Granovetter M. Threshold Models of Collective Behavior. The American Journal of Sociology, 1978, vol. 83, no. 6, pp. 1420-1443. https://sociology.stanford.edu/sites/g/files/sbiybj9501/f/publications/threshold_models_ajs_1978.pdf


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Published
2021-02-28
How to Cite
Shangutov, O., & Shangutov, A. (2021). PREVENTIVE IDENTIFICATION OF AREAS OF SOCIAL TENSION. Russian Journal of Education and Psychology, 12(1), 101-122. https://doi.org/10.12731/2658-4034-2021-12-1-101-122
Section
Psychological Studies